Morning Note: A round-up of today's financial market news.

Market News

Gold has this morning scaled a new all-time peak of $4,075 (and silver $51.60 an ounce), as renewed US-China trade concerns and economic uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand. President Trump on Friday threatened to impose extra levies of 100% on Chinese exports, along with new export controls on critical software from 1 November. However, he softened his stance on Sunday, saying America wants to help China and not harm it. Meanwhile, Beijing defended its rare earth export curbs and warned its readying countermeasures against any new US tariffs. Adding to market jitters, the US government shutdown has stretched into another week, depriving investors of key economic data needed to gauge the health of the economy.

Treasuries were also firmer, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.03%. Traders are pricing in 4.5 quarter-percentage-point interest-rate cuts through to the end of 2026.

US equities finished sharply lower in Friday trading – S&P 500 (-2.7%); Nasdaq (-3.6%) – after latest flare-up in US-China tensions. However, the futures market indicates a partial recovery at the open this afternoon. In Asia this morning, equity markets were weak, albeit bouncing off the lows: Hang Seng (-1.8%); Shanghai Composite (-0.2%).  Japan was closed for a holiday. China exports rose a better-than-expected 8.3% last month, as sales to the EU and Southeast Asia compensated for a decline to the US.

President Trump travels to the Middle East looking to seal the biggest diplomatic achievement of his second term and greet hostages emerging from two years of subjugation during the Israel-Hamas war. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are due to attend the Gaza peace plan signing ceremony in Egypt today.

Brent Crude fell by 4% at the end of last week to its lowest point since May but has recovered somewhat to $63.50 a barrel. UBS raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing tightening supply and disruptions like the Grasberg outage.

The FTSE 100 is currently 0.3% higher at 9,445, while Sterling trades at $1.3360 and €1.1495. UK household debt sits at a 23-year low, offering some hope of a consumer revival. House builders Barratt Redrow and Persimmon will offer buyers of UK homes loan products that require lower deposits. Lloyds said it expects to take an additional £800m motor finance provision charge, taking to $1.9bn.

AstraZeneca’s shares are up a touch this morning following an announcement it will cut consumer prices in the US on some drugs to levels that are equalised with those available in wealthy countries. In exchange, the US Department of Commerce will delay Section 232 tariffs for three years, enabling AZ to fully onshore medicines manufacturing so that all of its medicines sold in America are made in America. This follows a similar price agreement with industry peer, Pfizer.

Source: Bloomberg